Wednesday, January 17, 2018

This Won't End, It Will Explode. Violently...

Gamblers seem to have forgotten that "reflation" was outsourced during the past nine years. To make the quarter. Now the Pied Piper of Globalization wants his money back...

Trumpflation is a farce:
Tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, and interest rate hikes for the entire rest of the world...




Once the short volatility trade is force unwound, this will all end. Violently...

China tech stocks - the global gift that keeps on giving - are hitting new highs today:



And yet, recent "oscillations" have caused U.S. volatility to tighten considerably:




This current reflationary blow-off is like the one last March, but far more extreme. Nevertheless breadth is deteriorating...




Via the Russell / Dow ratio we see that breadth has deteriorated substantially since last March:





The dollar implosion is a dead canary in the coal mine - because the U.S. is ahead of the rest of the world on tightening monetary policy:

In other words, the currency market is calling bullshit on Trumpflation:



Dollar implosion is accelerating the global carry RISK OFF:



The volatility curve is heading back towards backwardation, at which point the vol short begins to unwind in size:



Money flow is also a problem, due to the end-of-cycle handoff from smart money to dumb money:




In summary:

Unfortunately, "reflation" was inconveniently outsourced, along with the middle class, during the past nine years (3 decades?). For fun and profit.

Which happens to be the theme of this blog. So what we have instead, is dullards who can be conned over and over again by the exact same psychopaths.

For fun and profit. 










Remember when Alibabylon imploded the casino back in 2014?






I do...









The Dumbest Society In Human History

By far, the biggest mistake I made over the past nine years was continually underestimating how dumb these fuckers are...

Their presiding beliefs at this lethal juncture are that they successfully borrowed their way out of a debt crisis, and printing money is the secret to effortless wealth:

"According to a recent Reuters report, global debt levels are now at a record high of $233 trillion, up from $142 trillion in 2007 and $87 trillion in 2000""

First off:
We can  now count most of the "pros" as dumb money:


"Bulls last reached this level a year before the infamous Black Monday crash that sent the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 22 percent in a single day"



Secondly, congratulations to Zerohedge for finally figuring out that BitCasino is a Ponzi scheme. It only took a mere -60% loss...


"The question on everyone's mind, did the bubble just burst or do you BTFD?"

To date, a cool ~$300 billion in Ponzi capital destroyed:





Getting back to fake reflation, a handful of gamblers are starting to consider that this just may be the fourth Central Bank engineered headfake since 2008...


"We believe 2018 will prove to be a very important year for investors, not only because of the unprecedented level of euphoria surrounding the U.S. equity market, but more so due to the ongoing global reflation trade that both speculators and investors are piling into."

We really hope global demand growth expectations materialize, otherwise we will once again be out of balance at a time when speculative long positions are at all-time highs. The last time this happened the unwinding of the large long position in 2014 sent oil prices crashing from $107 per barrel to a low of $26 per barrel."

"We really hope that the reason this is happening all over again isn't because this is happening all over again"





Meanwhile, many are expecting commodity demand and economic growth to continue to reflate against a backdrop where central banks are about to either end their easing and/or begin tightening."


"Hope"



We hope they’re right because the cost of being wrong could prove to be catastrophic"







Tuesday, January 16, 2018

The Last Trump Casino Is Closing

Our society is run by trusted con men: Realtors, banksters, and car salesmen...

The enabling lackeys in government and economics are just their industry-owned stooges...




Ten years later:






"Energy is expected to have the best season out of the 11 sectors"







Outlook for ’18 contrasts with GM projecting resilient results











"Once upon a time, when retailers reported same-store or comparable sales, the metric referred only to sales from stores themselves, excluding e-commerce. However, as store-based sales have become challenged, retailers have begun to group e-commerce under the heading of comparable sales

Target, for instance, which is on track for its best quarterly comp growth in at least two years...the actual same-store sales growth from stores was closer to just 1%"















"Sumamabitch!!!"

Ponzi schemes end when there are no more dunces left to con...






BitCasino broke key support at $13,000 overnight, and is now re-testing the wave 1 low at $11,000...



Today's melt-up gap was sold hard...



Context is key

The final melt-up overthrow in 2007 was July - October

This time it's the election through now...





...Because this nine year rally is one cycle degree larger than 2008...




The dollar is getting pole axed.

"No one knows why"

It can't be because fake reflation is fake, could it?



Because that would mean...we've seen this movie before...




Mind the gaps



And the overnight risk
























Monday, January 15, 2018

The Sum Of All Fools

What happens when 1987, Y2K, 2008, 2011, and 2015 are tied together using maximum leverage? Hang tight...

Absent a real global economy, Global Central Banks succeeded in monetizing 0% poverty capital into human history's largest simultaneous asset bubbles. "Everything" at the same time. To say that this will be a hard landing is an asinine understatement...

First off, driving this entire global reflationary charade is the oil futures market.

Any questions?



Not to be outdone is the echo housing bubble:



The echo retail bubble




The Keynesian bombing of foreigners bubble




The echo construction bubble



The echo Emerging Markets bubble



The echo Biotech bubble



The echo IPO bubble



The echo tech bubble



And, of course, BitCasino, TitCoin, Fucktoken and so forth...



All tied together, by the short volatility bubble and a tax cut for the ultra-wealthy.

What else?