Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Defunding Global Slavery

Unfortunately, Globalized corporate capitalism has devolved into a ponzified exploitation scheme. So it has to be defunded. This is just the most likely scenario, mind you...

Recall the Global Financial WMD is premised upon mass insanity being rewarded indefinitely:
Record short Japanese Yen 
Record short U.S. Treasuries
Record long oil
Record short volatility

But first, "where is the rest of the world, anyways?"




With focus on the largest economies...

Europe:




Japan




Global China Tech
Where junk IPOs are now being dumped with wild abandon...


These are the cross-listed mega caps that have kept the global casino bid every morning at the open (Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Netease etc. etc.), giving the delusion of endless tranquility...




Solve this global equation for a happy ending...




These are the NYSE circuit breakers. Fortunately, trading will be halted for the day when the Trump rally is eliminated...





The chart of the day has to be this one:

ZH: Millenials "Blamed" For Being Rational In The Face Of Ongoing Lunacy

Unlike the slap happy geriatric retards running this circus into the ground again, Millenials have made a very rational decision post-2008:

Slave wages? No pensions? Ponzi debt penury? Circus Clown President?

No babies to fund the corporate slave Matrix:

"We're going to take away your healthcare to fund a tax cut for Jeff Bezos. But why is no one having kids anymore?"





Fed Warns The Turkeys Are Stuffed

Ready for harvest...




"Federal Reserve officials expressed largely optimistic views of economic growth at their most recent meeting, but also started to worry that financial market prices are getting out of hand and posing a danger to the economy."



"Minutes of the Fed’s two-day meeting that ended Nov. 1 show the bank is still on track to raise interest rates soon, but the Fed used somewhat more ambiguous language than it did in September."

Dollar bulltards and treasury shorts just got hung out to dry...




"It's a trend-followers' paradise out there, and I'm serving up the classics for the holidays - Apple, Amazon, Alibaba"

ZH: Hedge Passive Dumb Money Funds' Most Over-Owned Stocks: Big Cap Tech







What does the Fed know that gamblers don't know? Such as never own stocks after the minutes are released...





'Conomy is doing great, buy more Amazon








Faux News Is Destroying America

U.S. reflation is a massive hoax perpetrated by Trump, the Fed, Wall Street, and copious dunces in the corporate-owned media...

Globalization has created a society of rapacious Ponzi schemers. Fakes and frauds abound from fake Gucci handbags to the people in leadership. Printing money to inflate asset values has papered over the decimation of the real economy. Only "shared" sacrifice will bring an end to this historically epic con job.  

Republicans just reached a new all-time low in order to garner votes for tax cuts for the bailout class. First it was strip-mining healthcare, now it's supporting pedophiles for Senate:



The root cause problem with the U.S. is Faux News. It's a colossal blind spot that is assisting the downfall of empire. A genre of empire-loyal news intended to brainwash a base of voters into systematically voting against their own interests. The Republican base has been trained to believe that this is a battle between gay rights and gun rights while their livelihood gets trucked out the back door to make the quarter. Global corporations don't want to create and protect high paying jobs, they want lower costs.

And today's bailed out pseudo-elite are as clueless and as callous as the day as long. After all, they've been taught to believe that printing money is the secret to effortless wealth and that Free Trade is "Free". They also assiduously believe that their ill-gotten Ponzi gains are well deserved and not a function of rapacious exploitation. 

Here is the true and rising cost of Free Trade that no serial failed Supply-Sider ever wants to admit. 



"The report projects that fatalities related to drugs, booze and suicide, if recent trends hold, could spike to 1.6 million over the next decade. That would represent a 60 percent increase from the number seen in the previous 10 years."

"In stark terms, they are signals of serious underlying concerns facing too many Americans — about pain, despair, disconnection and lack of opportunity — and the urgent need to address them."


The fact that there is no economic reflation and can be no economic reflation without a functioning middle class continues to be their enduring blind spot in this lurching fiasco. Ponzi schemers are constantly searching high and low for signs of out-of-control inflation, even as capacity utilization continues to plummet, wages stagnate, and standards of living fall. The only reflation is in asset prices as a function of Central Banks propping up the casino to the benefit of a dwindling minority. The trickle down fake wealth effect.

ALL of the stock market gains have come at the expense of the real economy. And nothing will improve until there's a sense of "shared sacrifice", meaning that the bailout class takes responsibility for this crisis. 

Fortunately, they're not that bright. For weeks and months we've been told that the problems with General Electric were company specific and in no way related to 'Conomy.

Today we found out that's just another colossal lie:


"Core capital goods shipments have been increasing since February, in part fueled by expectations that President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans in Congress will push through hefty corporate tax cuts."




The rest of the world wants its money back:



CAUTION: Unwinding this massive fraud will be painful for risk...







Tuesday, November 21, 2017

"Good News, RISK OFF Is Not An Option"

Leverage is too great. The hedges are too small. The complacency is too ubiquitous. The ETFs are too numerous. Passive funds are too undiversified. The systems are too fragile. The two year RISK ON vacation from reality comes at the cost of no way out...

For two weeks straight, the rest of the world channeled overnight risk to the U.S. which was assiduously bought with both hands. Then late last week, the overnight gaps mysteriously abated. Why? Because the global casino (ex-U.S.) was finishing the last leg of a broadening top.

The daily downside gaps translated into rising realized volatility for the S&P 500. The past few days was the last chance to get Goldman Sachs clients out the door...





Broadening top:
"In the broadening top formation five minor reversals are followed by a substantial decline."

"It is a common saying that smart money is out of market in such formation and market is out of control. In its formation, most of the selling is completed in the early stage by big players and the participation is from general public in the later stage."


In other words, the past two weeks was a warning that the two years of bliss is about to end....





The problem of course is that they don't see it coming...




The other problem is that there is no place to hide...

Of the top 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500, only one (Home Depot) made a new high today.

This is the Nasdaq 100:




The carry trade did not come along for today's ride. Confirming that global risk is coming off...




No Central bank meetings until mid-December







There's just a generation of gamblers who have no idea what "RISK OFF" even means...


















Stocks Upgraded To FULL MUPPET

The axis of evil - Trump, the Fed, and Wall Street - have combined forces to paper over global economic collapse. Because you can fool sheeple all of the time...

"Kostin, it's your job to put a bid under this thing until we get out"



My hypothesis that this low volatility momentum con job is to benefit the IPO market was just confirmed. Following last week's four failed Chinese Tech IPOs, no surprise, today Goldman upgraded the casino to "FULL MUPPET". Price target "Level 11". Coincidentally, their top recommended holding is the Emerging Market fund which happens to be concentrated in Chinese Tech stocks.




Of course we've seen this crisis before, in 2015, AFTER the crash:



"If you believe in infinitely-delayed RepubliCon tax cuts and the tooth fairy, you should double down on Chinese internet tech. We expect this to continue for another year, or blow up in your face like last time. Whichever comes first"



In between the time that institutions step aside and home gamblers go all in, there's a brief delay, which is this time:




Back in the early 2000s, facing a recession and corporate shock doctrine, the Fed lowered interest rates to 1% to encourage everyone to use their homes like ATM machines. Once everyone had tapped their available credit, they raised interest rates 17 times obliterating homeowners. Good times. Post-2008, they tried that again by lowering rates to 0%, however there weren't as many takers this time around. So next they printed batches of money to artificially levitate risk assets incentivizing gamblers to use their retirement savings like casino chips. Thus, generating the trickle down fake wealth effect. Now of course, global central banks are removing the excess liquidity. Which is setting us up for final stage blow-off melt-up:

Good times...



Overnight, BitCasino and the IPO-crazed Hong Kong stock markets both flash crashed, which sent global markets into a melt-up frenzy. Because there's nothing more bullish than a flash crash. It appears that someone took Goldman's 2018 advice early and bought the Emerging Markets fund with both hands, whose top holding just happens to be Chinese internet stock Tencent, which is now late stage parabolic: 



Speaking of dumbfuck ideas, the founder of Interactive Brokers has warned that futures on BitCasino fall in that same category:



Way back in January 2015, the Swiss National Bank removed the peg between the Swiss Franc and the Euro. In the event, they monkey hammered multiple FX brokerages and nearly wiped out FXCM. That was a 30% overnight move. Which as we know is a common event for Bitcasino.



Miners are here for a good time, not a long time...



I don't know if Bitcasino can implode the economy, but removing Fed dopium certainly IS:


"The Fed has tried to reduce its balance sheet six times in the past, with five ending in recession"

Gamblers have a 17% 0% chance of payoff...
Because one thing they should have learned from last time, is that the Fed are a bunch of fucking morons...





Monday, November 20, 2017

Thanksgiving Week Sales Event aka. "Black Friday"

Way back in 2014/2015, Central Banksters spiked the punch bowl with too much dopium. The next thing you know gamblers were throwing their money away on Chinese internet stocks, junk IPOs, and various other "imagined realities". But then it all crashed. Nevertheless, since the ritalin-junkies and Alzheimer's patients have the attention span of a coked up flea, here we are again ready to give it another go...




Per my proprietary Efficient Crash hypothesis, at the behest of their trusted advisors, stoned zombies pile into passive index funds by way of reducing their risk through "diversification". Little do they know, that passive index funds don't diversify inflows, they concentrate them into the largest cap momentum stocks in the casino. This concentration continues until there are only a handful of vertical mega caps keeping the casino aloft, while every other stock is imploding. 

The next thing you know, Hindenburg Omens are going off all over the place and Art Cashin warns that this shit show can crash at any moment:



"We've been setting record new highs, and often the breadth has been negative. We've had more declines than advances"

"We're starting to get more new lows than new highs; 30 percent of the stocks in the S&P [500] are down for the year. Those are very unusual combinations with new record highs."






But zombies are diversified, so they don't notice that there is no more momentum in momentum. In other words, even the stocks that are supposed to be going up, are not going up. 



But there's always time to throw more money away at the casino, despite the fact that the S&P peaked two weeks ago...



Which gets us to this week, because conventional wisdom is that this is a good week to buy stocks and a bad week to hedge, due to option decay since there are only 3.5 trading days:



"The S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.6 percent during Thanksgiving week, and has been higher 75 percent of the time since 1945"

Herein lies the problem, all of the recent volatility has come overnight via the S&P futures. And of course the rest of the world is not on holiday and neither are the futures. Which is why it's just possible that there may be more Black Friday "deals" this week, than expected. 


Every USDJPY selloff has been a gap down for the S&P 500...




As long as no one sells cross-listed China tech in Hong Kong this week, should be no problem. I would make that bet if I was smoking crack...