Monday, February 25, 2013

Ceteris Non Paribus: Everything Is Not Equal...

Ceteris Paribus: Latin for "all else being equal". What it really means, in the context of an economics lesson, is that there are millions of variables, but ignore all of them except for these two... At that point, any independent thinker hunkers down for an hour lecture consisting of being showered with assumptions-based bullshit. Likewise, when our esteemed econo-leaders such as Paul Krugman speak with certainty about uncertain things, any amount of humility would require them to admit that there are an unknown number of factors that affect the global economy...

More importantly, they would focus on the fundamental factors such as the direction of employment growth, escalating debts and deficits and stagnant wages etc. that really matter, all of which are being assiduously ignored. If we could ask these self-nominated economics experts, one question, what would it be?  How about this basic one that never gets asked by the sycophantic media: 

"What is the plan to restore the economy to sustainable growth, that does not require ongoing debt accumulation?" 

The answer:
"We don't have a plan, but we are going to keep borrowing until such time as the real economy magically reappears"

Yet the answer to this question of course can be answered by the most basic economics. This society has  a standard (cost) of living that is no longer affordable, therefore what we "sell" is over-priced. In order to get to a more sustainable economy therefore will require a downward adjustment in our standard (and cost) of living to a level at which we are once again competitive. Until that occurs, then "unemployment" aka. the output gap will persist and in fact grow larger over time. Alternatively, we can stop competing with the Third World, which would require us to stop buying their cheap goods - which in itself implies a de facto "adjustment" in our standard of living. Either way, there is no free lunch and no way around this basic reality.

Choose Your Illusion - The Age of Extreme Narcissism
So why is the general public so oblivious at this juncture? Could it be because the Idiocracy has invented dozens of ways for this society to gaze at itself lovingly in the mirror and otherwise distract itself from the ever-tightening noose of reality.  YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Reality TV, Instagram - what do all of these things have in common? They are public forums of exhibitionism for a society that is too self-absorbed to notice the decline occurring all around them. For this generation, to not absorb themselves in these media would be considered strictly anti-social. The idea of reading a book or otherwise devoting a moment to introspection would be deemed highly introverted "offline" behaviour. The vast majority of people no longer "live" life, they merely observe it and live vicariously through the online exploits of others. An unending stream of hyperactive consciousness jumping around from one subject to the next, never keeping focus long enough to absorb any context as to what is going on in the background. And of course thanks to all of these new media, the pressures to conform and perform now pursue us well beyond high school. The days of being able to graduate to a life of adult maturity beyond the reaches of infantile forms of social alienation, are a thing of the past. But, we can paper over that issue and indeed all other problems, with some more happy pills.

The bottom line is that the only thing that is "advanced" or "sophisticated" about this society today are all of the contorted excuses, rationalizations and diversions for why the status quo can be maintained indefinitely. Like a Chinese Restaurant, no one really wants to know what's going on behind the scenes...