Saturday, April 27, 2013

This Time Won't Be Different


Comfort-seeking apologists for this latest credit bubble who have deluded themselves into believing that "this" is reality, are overwhelmingly desperate to assume that things will turn out different this time, so they tell us that there is no sign of "froth" in the markets. As always, they just have to open their eyes...

The recent IPO space has gone parabolic:

LinkedIn:




Angie's List:


Fleetcor Technologies:



Lumber Liquidators:


World's greatest bubble - the Nikkei - making up for lost time with a 60% gain in five months. A testament to the overwhelming power of money printing. Annualized, that would be a 200% plus return:


My personal favorite (note the American spelling). This company went IPO 127 years ago, so it took its time going parabolic. This chart makes liars out of those who say the Fed "doesn't buy stocks". This is what is known as "reaching for yield" - an inevitable consequence of the Fed lowering long and short-term interest rates towards zero. Similarly, yields on junk bonds hit a new all-time low this week - "Investors are stretching for yield as a consequence of the Fed's low interest rate policy". To paraphrase, investors are taking way too much risk and substituting capital gains for interest. It's a self-deluding strategy that works great until it doesn't work at all due to the fact that there is an ever-dwindling supply of fools with money willing to overpay for slow growing stocks and/or over-valued junk bonds...

Johnson & Johnson:



For those who are kicking themselves for missing out on all of those great gains, just as a reminder, here is what ALWAYS happens when something goes up too fast. 
Silver:


[TO DO: Insert standard Saturday night drunken rant here. Be sure to reiterate that this is the dumbest fucking society in history...]

INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK