Sunday, January 31, 2016

"Buy The Fucking Dip": Last Temptation of the Idiocracy

It's called survivor bias...the market timers with the best records are the ones betting it all on Central Banks:

MW: Jan. 30, 2016
The Top Market Timers Are Advising "Buy The Dip"
"The stock market timers with the best records are bullish, on balance, while those with the worst records are bearish."

'Granted, being perma-bullish is not 100% foolproof:'
"This...is not a foolproof market-timing system...It continued to be bullish throughout 2011, for example, when —  the broader market fell by 20%."

"Double down on collapse, bitchez"




Central Banks have conditioned gamblers to onboard risk. The BOJ purposely ambushed shorts this week to teach them a lesson for not embracing risk.  Being bearish has been a sucker's bet since 2008. Even last year's sideways market was a dead draw for bulls and bears. The Dow traversed 50,000 daily points and ended flat to down.

In other words, more and more people have been tempted to buy in to the fantasy. Risk is fully embraced...

S&P with range of average stock:




The red line is the four week moving average % bearish sentiment for Individual Investors with the Value Line Arithmetic average. This week registered 40% bears. Meanwhile, the VLA indicates that the average stock has gone nowhere since July 2013. When the VLA broke its neckline in 2009, bearish sentiment was in the 60% range...



The ISE Call/put ratio, I showed earlier:
Sentiment surveys aside, bulls threw a ton of cash at this thing last week - more than in December...



NYSE New Lows
8 week moving average:




The Value Line and new lows reveal the extensive damage that's hidden beneath the surface of the S&P.

It's all up to Facebook (Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Exxon)
S&P equal weight/cap weighted ratio...




And it's up to Central Banks to con more shorts into covering.